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  • Tech-ish: Apple will go rotten again

    My latest thought: Apple’s fortunes will take a dive again, just like they did in the late ’90’s.

    Now, pretty much everyone who knows me knows I’m a Mac guy.  I converted back when iPods were still only available for Macs, I really love my MacBook Pro, they’ve done an amazing job with marketing and making a computer that’s a joy to use and upgrade, and I’m planning on buying an iPhone, though I’ve been increasingly hesitant about that.

    I learned computers on Macs.  But I switched in the late 90’s to PCs because Macs cost 2 to 3 times as much, didn’t have as much software being made for it, and what software there was didn’t come out until well after the PC version had been released.  It was a no-brainer at the time, and it seemed that way to many people, as Apple almost went bust before the iPod and OSX were released.

    A lot has changed: applications are increasingly web-based, which means it doesn’t really matter what OS you’re using, and the software and games are almost always released for both PC and Mac at the same time, which is an argument in favor of Apple being able to stay alive.

    But there’s no getting around the fact that Macs, iPods and iPhones are gourmet electronics, and it’s the gourmet things that are the first to go when people need to trim their budgets. You can already get twice the system for the same amount of money (or even less) if you buy a Windows machine over a Mac.  Again, I love my Mac, but I would never recommend to anyone to buy it.  And I think that, as the economy worsens and gas prices go up, it’s going to be harder and harder for people to justify spending that kind of money.

    The field is wide open for a hardware maker to compete with Apple.  They need to develop their own, free flavor of Linux that focuses on the same kind of “it just works” ease-of-use that Macs have and then make their money by selling high-quality, good-looking machines.  Do the same thing for mp3 players and phones.  Make millions.

    Blogger in Draft
    After saying last week that Blogger is well behind Wordpress in terms of features, Blogger goes and releases a bunch of new features for Blogger In Draft, their test version of the blogging software.  And it reminds me why I love Google.  Their products may not be perfect, but you always know that they’re working on it. It makes it a whole lot easier to be happy with the free products that they keep putting out.


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    24 Responses to “Tech-ish: Apple will go rotten again”

    1. Harry Boner Says:

      “The field is wide open for a hardware maker to compete with Apple. They need to develop their own, free flavor of Linux that focuses on the same kind of “it just works” ease-of-use that Macs have and then make their money by selling high-quality, good-looking machines. Do the same thing for mp3 players and phones. Make millions.”

      Oh…that’s the secret! It sounds sooooo easy….Good luck with that.

    2. Yes! It’s my first IT geek comment! It’s just like all those other tech blogs, where people make really lame arguments and totally miss the point. Honestly: it’s an honor, even though it’s a little difficult to seriously respond to someone who goes by “Harry Boner”.

      Still, I love how he acts as though I’m somehow arguing that starting up a hardware company is as easy as writing a three-sentence paragraph. It may suprise, but I don’t think it’s that easy. If I did, I’d have my own company.

      The point of that paragraph was this: the Microsofts and Dells of the world keep not learning from Apple’s successes. They keep releasing inferior products that are difficult for non-techies to use and that don’t look as good. If someone takes a Linux base (meaning that it would still be programmer-friendly) and created a simple surface that anyone could use and then make money on the hardware sales of products that look as good and are as exciting as Apple’s are AND made those two things the priority, I think they could be a competitor.

      It still remains, though: Apple’s in big trouble as the economy falters. I’ll probably hesitantly buy another Mac when the time comes to buy a new computer, because it’s easier and I just plain like it better, but it’s becoming harder and harder to justify the money spent as money gets tighter.

    3. “Again, I love my Mac, but I would never recommend to anyone to buy it. “???
      Is this because the author is imposing his opinion on others or is it because he doesn’t believe it’s a superior computing platform.

      “You can already get twice the system for the same amount of money (or even less) if you buy a Windows machine over a Mac.”
      Really? Then everyone is silly who buys a Mac then. It’s not about how fast the chips are, how much HDD space, how big the screens are. It’s about getting things done and about the experience and productivity. Feeds and speeds don’t matter anymore. You may get twice the computing power, but the OS takes all that power just to boot up. Is that necessarily twice the computing power?

      This article is poorly thought through by someone who doesn’t have the backbone to stand up for what he loves and about which is passionate.

    4. Find me a linux distro that “just works” and I just might switch. closest i’ve come is ubuntu and suse 11. but after spending days just trying to get it to network with a mac and linux box, editing conf files until hell freezes over, I threw in the towel. as the first poster said, good luck with that.

    5. Gosh. Generalize much? “Applications are increasingly web-based.” They are? I know that some small circles of power users have moved into web apps, but Office, iWork, and especially iLife are very much hard drive based. I will counter-generalize: MOST users never use web apps. And that will be the case throughout this recession.

      On “Gourmet electronics”: “I love my Mac, but I would never recommend to anyone to buy it.” What?!? Why not? Is a Mac such a luxury that colleagues, friends, and family should bury themselves under a Windows box? Very powerful MacBooks that need no extra trimmings (okay, probably iWork) can be had for under $1,000. If this is something you use every day for work, photos, music, video, the web, etc., how is it not worth it? The markup over a pc can’t be more than $200 and might be less than that. It’s hardly a BMW vs. Toyota difference. More like a Camry over a Corolla. And sometimes a Camry is the better purchase.

    6. the increased Apple sales is mostly coming from the top 30% incomes, they are not feeling the recession yet, maybe they never will … ( you know the rich get richer … and with 5% market share that pool isn’t dried up yet)
      Also people want to optimize their spending aka, cut on the rubbish, spent the money on real quality products to up productivity …
      So unless it is a compleet melt down, apple has still some remarkable expansion ahead even in a mild recession

    7. The smart shopper knows that the cost of supporting a PC makes them more expensive in the long run. I can’t tell you how many times the tech guy has been over to fix the PC’s in the office. For my mac it is zero. At 80 bucks an hour you tell me what costs more.

    8. unkulunkulu Says:

      Several points that needs to be clarified:

      1. Apple’s sales has actually gone up in time of economic downturn. They’ve been innovating their way out of all downturns. Their products are not a commodity.

      2. Apple computers aren’t that much more expensive than equivalent equipped PCs. In fact, in some cases it can be cheaper.

      Congratulations on your first IT “post”. You have room for growth :)

      It’s funny though, I don’t even own a Mac, yet I recommend everybody buy a Mac. The TCO and ROI just totally pays for itself over time.

      Next advice - stick with one topic and hammer it down with facts and solid defense. Don’t jump around. It just dilutes your point.

      If I was going to argue that Apple will go rotten again, I would’ve tackled the iTunes-MobileMe-iPhone type of monopoly that Apple’s exerting right now or something of that nature.

      Good luck :)

    9. Ooh… some one makes a comment on YOUR blog and you pick on his NAME! thats very mature of you!

      The only reason why anyone bothered to read your half (no - quarter) baked post is because it got linked at MacSurfer.

      Your masterpiece choice of words like “gourmet” and “wide-open” is certain to make this post one of the must-read articles on the “future of Apple”.

      AM

    10. Apple is NOT in big trouble as the economy falters. If they only offered computers, or iPods, or iPhones, yes, that would be worrying.
      But Apple has smartly diversified, preventing it from the troubles of its past.
      And I disagree with your assumption that people will be less willing to spend money on a Mac. Certainly because your assumption that Macs are greatly more expensive is a myth, but more importantly, I don’t think people will en masse choose the Windows experience once they’ve experienced the Mac.
      Of the dozens of people I know who switched from Windows to a Mac, I’ve know of none who have switched back.
      Just not gonna happen on a large scale.

    11. Linux sellers have been trying to get on the desktop for years. They corner the server market but they have been stuck at less than 1% of the desk top year after year. Don’t hold your breath.

      With Apple it’s all about the software, stupid. I think thats paraphrasing Nixon, I could be wrong. It’s some dead President.

      Having said that, similar hardware, connectors, HDs, CPUs et cetera, gets sold for very similar prices when you stick to brand names. An all in one Dell or HP, similarly equipped, costs about as much as an iMac. A budget laptop, similarly equipped costs, about as much as a MacBook. A high end laptop similarly equipped, is sold at a similar price to a MacBook Pro.

      When it comes to cheap boxes with cheap components, Apple can’t touch PCs.

      When it comes to holes in Apple’s lineup, PCs can be very good buys.

      When it comes to high end Quad or eight core workstations, PCs are way more expensive than Mac Pros.

      So you’re really saying there are holes in Apple’s lineup that PC makers can exploit. Let’s face it though, Dell is losing money big time selling low end PCs.

      Apple doesn’t compete in enterprise, so any enterprise purchase slow downs will not hurt Apple.

      Still, in the consumer market, price is a big point but lately, software is king. Consumers are realizing that ease of use and total cost of ownership mean something. Hybred cars cost more but with $5 to $6 a gallon gas, consumers are realizing, the Hybred car could be the cheaper purchase. Macs are like that. Zero down time, no anti-virus software needed, higher resale value in 3 to 4 years, no ‘geeks to go’ contract needed. It all adds up.

      Don’t worry about Apple. Worry about Dell. Microsoft will take forever to die.

    12. dooood, some people…

      anyway, I really like my Dell’s (and I was a big Mac user about 10 yrs ago), but it is funny (in light of this post), C and I have been talking about getting a Mac whenever we buy our next computer - mostly because of the ease in using Windows stuff on them now - or so I’ve heard.

      That’s all I got - just wanted to give you a friendly comment in the mix…

    13. Awesome. Note to self: If I ever need traffic, rag on Apple.

      Peter: obviously, I wouldn’t say everyone is silly who buys a Mac. I bought one and I probably will again. But I was sitting next to a friend of mine who had an incredibly powerful tablet IBM that he loves and has never had any problem with it, it was a much more powerful and speedy machine than my MacBook Pro, and it cost $200 less. That certainly makes me think twice about what kind of computer to buy.

      Fred: that was exactly my point. There currently isn’t a Linux platform that “just works” like Mac does, but it’s there for someone to develop a version that puts ease of use as the number one priority. That’s the important part. To simplify my statement: it doesn’t exist, but it could.

      Kikuchiyo: Uh, yes: applications are increasingly (note: I did not say are now all. Google Docs and Zoho and the vast majority of feed readers for starters, but applications like anywhere.fm and Mint.com are starting to (note: starting to) take take the place of their desktop counterparts (iTunes and Quicken respectively).

      dady: that’s a good point, and it could well be Apple’s saving grace.

      Paul: also a good point. Again, the quality of the parts and the reliability of the OS could be what saves Apple this time around. But to counter that, there have been plenty of other products in history that have gone bust in spite of their better quality.

      unkulunkulu: Um, written plenty of stuff on Tech issues. But I write this stuff very quickly and off the top of my head for a very small audience. If I’d known it would get picked up by macsurfer, I would have put a little more thought into it. Not that I’m backing off what I said at all. It still stands.

      Very true that Apple’s strength is innovation. But as we saw with their initial OS and Windows 95, they can be upset by some company that takes their innovation and makes something that’s more appealing (read: cheaper or easier) to the consumers.

      AM: It’s just not name-calling over his name. You write yourself up as “Harry Boner”, it’s pretty difficult to take that seriously. Though I took him seriously anyway.

      I’m FAR from the first person to call Apple “gourmet”.

      Chip: Interesting. My personal experience would definitely justify that stance. In spite of the price difference, I’ve still stuck with Macs. But it will be interesting to see if Macs can survive real economic woes. I personally think that your average computer buyer will have a hard time justifying spending $1100 on a MacBook when there’s plenty of Windows machines they could get for hundreds less.

      I know, I know: it’s about the quality. Everyone here knows that Apple uses good parts and Dells suck. But try telling that to the person browsing at Best Buy. Who is the majority.

      Everyone: Let’s try to stick to the actual arguments, huh? I wrote this simply because I’ve been a little frustrated with Macs lately and decided to write it up on my mostly low-traffic site. I’m happy to take up this debate, and I’m certainly open to being wrong on this, but…let’s stick to the arguments, eh?

    14. If you’ve voted with your pocketbook, and then can’t justify it with recommendations, then something is wrong. Clearly, you’re conflicted with your choice of computers. Some people can’t get past the hardware cost ratio, finding the more intangible benefits of superior design and execution harder to quantify. If you feel guilty driving a sports car when you suspect a pickup truck would do nicely, buy the pickup truck. For you, the sports car is a waste.

      Yes, people do feel passionately about their Macs, but really, this is a simple decision — either it’s worth it to you, or it isn’t.

    15. This author doesn’t know JACK-SH** about the total cost of owning a Mac versus a CHEAP PC computer/laptop that doesn’t include anything worthwhile with it, gets viruses, etc.

      Enough said.

    16. Apology accepted and thank you for the explanation regarding your frustration.

      It’s not your fault, it’s Macsurfer. We believed we were being directed to an article by someone who knew what they were talking about.

    17. Actually, there’s more to it than “If you build it, they will come.”

      Suppose someone takes an Ubuntu distribution, adds some of the Apple open-source technologies, does some of their own work and creates a nice looking operating system.

      Next, they have to convince people to actually spend money on the thing. That requires marketing, something most technical people aren’t all that good at.

      One of Apple’s problems back in the late 90s and early 2000s was that people didn’t actually consider buying an Apple computer. Apple spent money on clever advertising and worked with resellers–and built their own stores–to show consumers the “Macintosh Experience” just so that when it came time to buy a new computer, the consumer would think, “Hey, maybe I’ll get a Mac.”

      That’s a big hump to get over–convincing people to buy the bloody thing.

      I tend to agree that economic woes will slow Apple growth. You’re right that if I want/need a notebook computer and can only afford to spend $750, I’m going with Dell and Windows Vista (or Ubuntu) and putting off that shiny MacBook until I can afford one.

      That said, quality and experience sells. There will be plenty of people who will buy MacBooks because of the perceived advantages and the belief that they’re getting a much better computer by spending a bit more money.

      As some have pointed out, Apple has actually increased sales during economic downturns. Of course, they’re pointing the economic troubles during the Dot-Com Bust. The current economic woes are, in my opinion, much worse. Also, Apple was coming from a position of weakness–for example, selling 200,000 computers versus selling 100,000 computers is doubling your sales. But twice nothing is still nothing. Now that Apple is selling more than two million personal computers every quarter, it’s much tougher to double it to four million in bad economic times.

      So, no, I’m not convinced that Apple “will go rotten again.” One reason is that people want Apple computers–there is demand. Apple may respond to that by paying more attention to the lower-end of their market. We may see new Mac minis and a new low-end MacBook that Apple can sell for under $1000. We might also see Apple paying more attention to their professional customers, who are not quite as price-sensitive as consumers, with new Macintosh Pros and Xserves.

    18. Doug: Thanks, man. You and the other folks that I normally write for were my intended audience, though I probably should have known that any post saying anything even remotely negative about Apple would be jumped on. The Mac crowd are a particularly sensitive bunch, though I tend to be kind of the same way when talking to my “Microsoft rules” friends.

      I’ll be very curious to hear if you and C go Mac. You have plenty of people to get tips from.

      Richard Taylor: That’s pretty much exactly what I was saying: that people will have to make a difficult choice to spend the money on a quality product on Macs or go with the cheapest option, disregarding quality. But economics have showed time and time again, with restaurants or clothes cars, that people who are cash-strapped will forgo quality in favor of frugality, in spite of the arguments to the contrary.

      Tom H and Scott: I’m not sure what I would need to do in order to qualify for knowing what I’m talking about. 10 years working with and buying both PCs and Macs? I contemplated not approving those comments, but I’m kind of enjoying all of the “you don’t know anything” non-arguments. It’s the commenting equivalent of “nuh UH!”

      And I didn’t apologize for anything. Don’t need to.

      Peter M: FANTASTIC comment. That makes me glad for the link from macsurfer to get a comment like this. Thanks.

      I think that the question is to whether people actually will make their computer puchases as considered as you mention it. I think that everything you say is true, but I’m not convinced that people will really stop to think that they’re getting much better quality for the money.

      Remains to be seen…

    19. The beef with Mac users (probably you included) is when people are so quick with the “Macs cost more.” Then we Mac users have to point out that, yes, Lexus does indeed cost more than a Buick. On the other hand, Lexus is a fantastic value compared to Mercedes (comparing Apples to Apples).

      I do think you finally explained your point in your post at 3:34pm. It’s true that you can go much further down the scale when you dig around in the PC junkyard. And many people will choose that option. Some will even have great luck with it.

      It’s not that you say bad stuff about Apple, but your title is quite catching. I wanted to read just how Apple will go Rotten again. I’m not sure you hit that mark, but it was entertaining nonetheless.

    20. Thanks, Art. Though…all I said at 3:34 pm was a simple restatement of what was in the original post: “[A]s the economy worsens and gas prices go up, it’s going to be harder and harder for people to justify spending that kind of money.”

      It’s possible that Apple has reached the point of being the Lexus/Mercedes of computers. And, as a commenter pointed out earlier, it’s entirely possible that they can keep business simply by selling to the higher income brackets (like Mercedes and Lexus have). But I think that, even for people with higher incomes, there just isn’t that same demand for luxury computers that there are for cars. Maybe things have changed, but I just don’t see it that way.

      I know plenty of people who are high-level programmers and who live and breathe this stuff and would never even think of buying a Mac. Point being that Macs are not the logical conclusion of personal computing. Apple makes great, high-quality products that have been brilliantly marketed, but they can be replaced.

      It’s possible that Apple has managed to set their place more permanently this time with OSX, the iPod and the iPhone, but…I’m just not sure. I get more and more frustrated at the high cost of peripherals and accessories that come with being a Mac owner, and I make my living in computers. I just imagine what the average “I only need a computer for internet and email” consumer will think. My guess: it won’t take much for them to give up on Apple.

    21. Scott Schuckert Says:

      I can’t count the times I’ve read “all the world needs is a consumer friendly Linux.” You DO realize that’s an oxymoron, right? The biggest appeal (for the consumer) to Linux is that it’s inexpensive and generic. It’s inexpensive and generic because many people contribute to it, for little or no compensation.

      Now, to be polished, stable, and consumer friendly, software MUST have an overriding design philosophy, extensive quality assurance, and in-depth consumer testing. All of which require MONEY - for organization, and for professional programmers, who are kept precisely on task BY that organization.

      If it costs real money to produce, it must be SOLD for real money. And then you have OS X (or, if you do the above poorly, Windows).

    22. What?! Starting a business requires money?! Since when?!

      It’s really amazing that, just because I didn’t include a detailed software and hardware company project plan with my blog post, you assume that I wasn’t aware of what it takes to build software or an OS.

      The reason that I picked Linux is because you could build an OS without starting from scratch. If someone wanted to start from scratch…fine. The point being that someone needs to learn from Apple’s successes, which are not that hard to learn, and yet no one seems to be able to do it. Put the emphasis on ease of use and fashion. Give the OS for free and then make money on hardware and support. Sun has been making enormous amounts of money by doing exactly that.

      The chance to create products that have the same plusses as Macs have without the price is available for Google or Microsoft or IBM or even someone like Red Hat, or really any of the hardware makers. But they need to do the OS and the hardware right, really pinpointing where Apple succeeded. Out of those companies, I think that Google has the best chance of taking business away from Apple.

    23. I absolutely love Dell. I’ve bought a desktop, several laptops, a tv, and mp3 player from them. All of which I’ve been pleased with. The rare times I’ve had to use their tech service I’ve been surprisingly pleased as well. Anyway, I’d much rather have Dell build a PC to my specs rather than buy one already configured at a Best Buy or Apple Store. Why anyone would do that, I have no idea, as you’re paying for things you don’t want and not getting the things you do want.

      When Macs started they were made to be “easier” to use for people who didn’t know sh*t about computers, but the flip side was you couldn’t do as much with them. Unfortunately MS eventually dumbed-down Windows to Apple’s level, so for all intents and purposes, they all work about the same now. Macs aren’t inherently more virus-proof than Windows PCs, it’s just the hackers aren’t going to spend all their time creating a virus that’s only going to affect a small percent of the computer population. None of my PCs have gotten a virus before (of course I don’t open weird email attachments from people I don’t know, either), so it doesn’t feel like such a danger that would drive me to buy a Mac (which, again, isn’t really any safer). Apple’s computers are still somewhat pricier than equivalent PCs, though not as much as they used to be. The real price difference these days is in their other products like the iPod (way, way overpriced).

      Anyway, I don’t think most people really buy Macs because they’re easier/better/better-value-in-the-long-run/whatever. It’s because of the culture (more like cult) invented by Apple’s marketing folks. Just like an environmentalist buying a Prius, when taking the bus instead would truly be more environmentally friendly. But you can’t impress your friends by flashing them a bus pass the way you can by pulling up in your hybrid…and not a hybrid that looks like a regular car (like a civic, for example), but one that makes it clear to everyone that you drive a hybrid, and are, therefore, cool. For a lot (not all, but most I’d say) of these people, buying a Mac has that same sort of holier-than-thou cachet to it. Which is why they are so quick to attack one of their own the minute they sense that he might not be drinking the kool-aid (see previous comments on this post). When really, all he was saying was that he likes his Mac but isn’t going to go around insisting his friends all use one too.

      Stick that in your mcsurfer.

      -Scott

      P.S. Al - “It’s the economy, stupid” was the knock on George H.W. Bush during the ‘92 campaign. It wasn’t said by Nixon, or even directly by Clinton (who’s not dead).

    24. Good to have your thoughts on Dell, Scott. I haven’t had too much trouble with the Dells I’ve had, but the conventional wisdom from techies is that they use inferior parts. For what that’s worth.

      But I do have to disagree pretty strongly that buying Macs is a cult thing. I spend all of my days on PCs and nights and weekend on a Mac, so I feel like I have a pretty good grasp of both systems and the pros and cons of each.

      So while I think that PCs definitely have their strengths over Macs, I will say that Macs do just work. It’s much easier to get peripherals up and running and they look a lot better and tend to work much better. Many of the programmers I know have switched to Macs and prefer programming for them, and from the indie software out there, you can definitely tell. I find that the small pieces of software out there are generally easier, better built and look better when I download them.

      So while I’m happy to have you bagging on the Macheads after this ridiculous display in the comments above, there’s a whole lot more to people’s use of Macs than just marketing and a perceived sense of superiority. They’re excellent systems, and the fact that they’re built on the Unix system makes them much more flexible than they were back in the 90’s.

      The point of the whole thing is that, while Macs have many strengths and even a lot of advantages, I’m not sure there’s enough there to keep people from switching when money’s tighter, and so my prediction is that people will again, just as they did in the ’90’s and Apple will find itself in the same spot it did then.

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